- Green technologies require materials in limited supply today
- Supply shortages could soon become a problem for developed nations
- Resource nationalism could further complicate the problem
We have commented on the fact that (with a few exceptions) politicians, policy makers etc., have conspicuously avoided mentioning the implausible nature of the Great Green Transition Dream. Well that may be beginning to change. Apart from the sudden increase in articles in the mainstream media about the supply problems with critical minerals, the World Bank seems to now be warning that the era of steady economic growth may very well be over— predicting a drop in world growth rates of more than 30 per cent. That’s a really big drop. Here is an excerpt from the best article we have read in recent weeks:
Essentially, the World Bank states that global growth capability, having fallen from 3.5% between 2000 and 2010 to 2.6% between 2011 and 2021, may now decline further, to 2.2%, during the remainder of the 2020s.
Moreover, the wording here is instructive – 2.2% references “potential” growth, and, says the Bank, the out-turn could be even worse “if financial crises erupt in major economies and, especially, if they trigger a global recession”. Many observers, perhaps even a majority of them by now, presumably recognise that both a financial crisis and a recession are likelier to happen than not.
The not unreasonable inference, then, is that global economic growth will be less than 2.2% between now and 2030.
Neither the World Bank nor any other institution in a position of authority is likely to make (or acknowledge) the connection between economic deceleration and energy deterioration . . . All they need to do – for now, anyway – is to steer growth expectations downwards. There’s plenty of time between now and 2030 to introduce further caution into their guidance.
That excerpt is from a blog written by a British economist, Dr Tim Morgan, Surplus Energy Economics:
The underlying ‘real’ or physical economy of products and services has deteriorated, via stagnation, into contraction. Partly because of a mistaken belief that monetary gimmickry can promote material expansion, a huge gulf now yawns between the ‘real economy’ and its ‘financial economy’ proxy.